Iran's Population Dynamics and Demographic Window of Opportunity

Co-authored with Farzaneh Roudi.

A sound understanding of Iran’s population dynamics is of paramount importance for understanding its potential for development in the long run. This paper discusses past trends and future projections of Iran’s population dynamics and evaluates the contributions of its major determinants (i.e., fertility, mortality, and migration). Also covered are the changes in women’s reproductive behavior and population age distribution and place Iran’s fertility decline in an international context through a comparative analysis, the distribution and select compositions of the population at a provincial level, and unemployment as well as the rising trend of young people pursuing education beyond high school and project the future educational attainments of Iranians.

Pooya Azadi is leading the efforts of the Stanford Iran 2040 Project.

Mohsen Mesgaran is a researcher for the Stanford Iran 2040 Project.